Canada's Inflation Rate Falls to 1.6% in September, Raising Odds of Larger BoC Rate Cut
Inflation Slows Across Canada
Consumer inflation slowed to 1.6% in September, the lowest rate in over two years and a welcome relief from the high levels seen earlier in 2022. Many economists expected a reading of 1.7%. Year over year, food prices were up 10.3%, energy climbed 13.4%, but prices for furniture, floor coverings, and other household operations dropped 6.3%.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) targets an inflation rate of 2%, and this latest reading suggests inflation is moving in the right direction. BMO’s Chief Economist, Douglas Porter, said in a note to clients the soft reading raises the odds of a larger rate cut by the BoC at its next policy announcement on Oct. 26.
Porter told BNN Bloomberg in an interview, “There are a couple of important considerations for the Bank of Canada — core inflation is still uncomfortably high at 5.3%, and they don’t want to declare victory prematurely. But number two, global growth concerns are intensifying, and that could potentially warrant a more aggressive move.”
What It Means for Canadians
Lower inflation means that Canadianconsumers have more money to spend on goods and services. This could help boost economic growth in the coming months. However, it’s important to note that inflation is still above the BoC’s target of 2%. This means that Canadians will still likely see higher prices for food and energy in the coming months.
The central bank will likely take a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, balancing the need to curb inflation with the risk of slowing economic growth. The BoC has raised interest rates five times this year, and another hike is widely expected on Oct. 26. The size of the hike may depend on inflation readings in the coming months and global economic conditions.
The BoC will release its next inflation report on October 19th. This report will provide more insight into inflation’s trajectory and will likely help the central bank make a decision on interest rates.